PV Profile Operating Rate Remains Stable, Downstream Outlook Is Positive [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, February 21

PV Aluminum Extrusion:PV aluminum extrusion production remains stable. Some leading enterprises stated that the impact of the new PV policies has not yet shown significant effects. Module manufacturers are cautious about purchasing aluminum at high prices. The operating rate of PV aluminum extrusion remained stable this week. SMM will continue to monitor the production schedule and procurement volume trends of module manufacturers.For March, module production schedules are still expected to maintain positive growth MoM, providing support for subsequent aluminum consumption.

Material Prices:During the period (2025.2.17-2025.02.21), the average spot aluminum price center moved upward. SMM A00 weekly average price was 20,632 yuan/mt, up 0.5% from the previous week's average price. Overall, most suppliers are bullish on the aluminum market outlook and expect that after entering March, the inventory turning point will gradually emerge. Supported by policies, aluminum ingot inventory is expected to remain at low levels for an extended period, with stronger sentiment of holding back cargoes in the spot market. Under the scenario of strong expectations but weak reality, aluminum prices are more likely to rise than fall, driven by macro sentiment and trading expectations. The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2504 contract is expected to operate within 20,600-21,300 yuan/mt, while LME aluminum is expected to operate within 2,600-2,750 US dollars/mt. There is also a possibility of aluminum prices surging to 21,000 yuan/mt if issues such as tariffs continue to escalate and macroeconomic stimulus leads to demand exceeding expectations.

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